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Economic data calendar

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are GMT)

Monday, 18th February
00:00 USD US President’s Day
23:50 JPY Machinery Orders

Tuesday, 19th February
00:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
07:00 CHF Trade Balance
07:00 CHF Imports/Exports
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate
08:30 GBP Average Hourly Earnings
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Change
10:00 GER ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment
10:00 EUR ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
23:50 JPY Imports/Exports

Wednesday, 20th February
07:00 GER Producer Price Index
08:15 CHF Industrial Production
11:00 USD Retail Sales
11:00 USD Retail Sales ex-Autos
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes

Thursday, 21st February
00:30 JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate
01:30 AUD Employment Change
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index
07:00 GER Consumer Price Index
08:30 GER Markit Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GER Markit Services PMI
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
13:00 GER Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 CAD ADP Employment Change
13:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI
14:45 USD Markit Services PMI
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales
23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index

Friday, 22nd February
07:00 GER Gross Domestic Product
09:00 GER – IFO Expectations
09:00 GER – IFO Business Climate
09:00 GER – IFO Current Assessment
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
13:30 CAD Retail Sales ex-Autos
15:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
CORPORATE CALENDAR

Monday, 18th February
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC
Petra Diamonds Ltd

Tuesday, 19th February
HSBC Holdings PLC
Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC
BHP Group PLC
American Water Works
Avangrid Inc
Concho Resources Inc
Diamondback Energy Inc
Ecolab Inc
Genuine Parts Company
Medtronic PLC
Noble Energy Inc
Walmart Inc

Wednesday, 20th February
Glencore PLC
Hochschild Mining PLC
Intu Properties PLC
Lloyds Banking Group PLC
Agilent Technologies Inc
Fresenius Medical Care corporation
Garmin Ltd
GoDaddy Inc
Fresenius Medical Care corporation
ICON PLC
NetEase Inc
Realty Income Corporation
Southern Company

Thursday, 21st February
Anglo American PLC
BAE Systems PLC
Barclays PLC
Centrica PLC
Kaz Minerals PLC
Playtech Ltd
RELX PLC
Serco Group PLC
Go-Ahead Group PLC
Hays PLC
Alliant Energy Corporation
Consolidated Edison Inc
DexCom Inc
Domino's Pizza Inc
Dropbox Inc
Evergy Inc
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Intuit Inc
Newmont Mining Corporation
OGE Energy Corp
Pembina Pipeline Corp
Teleflex Incorporated
Wendy's Company

Friday, 22nd February
Pearson PLC
Magna International Inc
Royal Bank Of Canada
W.P. Carey Inc

Market talks

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Dollar Reigns Again…
Equity markets looked set to finish in positive territory, with Wall Street up over 400 points as the trading week drew to a close. Investor confidence came from assumed progress between the US and China, as negotiations moved to a higher level ahead of attempts to de-escalate the ongoing tariff war. A proposed deadline of 1 March has been set. This is when the planned US tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports is due to be implemented. Investors are expecting this to potentially have a large impact on global economic growth, so the bulls will be hoping for further news that a deal can be negotiated over the coming week. Any announcements regarding this could have dramatic effects on currencies, commodities and indices globally, so traders will need to keep a close eye on updates.

USD/JPY
The Federal Reserve has used very dovish language in recent meetings and has maintained a more relaxed policy towards hiking rates further in the US. Last week, however, saw core CPI rose for the third month on the bounce - which could put pressure on the FOMC, as the main reason for the multiple interest rate hikes in 2018 was to combat inflation. Expectations are that the Federal Reserve will not be hiking rates again, at least in the first half of 2019, if at all. Will we see some clues regarding this when the FOMC minutes are released at 19:00 on Wednesday?

EUR/USD
The most commonly traded currency pair will be in focus on Thursday. German Consumer Price Index inflation data just prior to Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers could be crucial for early trading. The lack of expectations for the ECB to amend its current monetary policy has kept the euro pinned down at 18-month lows against the greenback. A strong set of numbers for the largest European economy showing expansion may go some way to quell fears of an economic slowdown and support the EUR. Should we see a contraction, the USD might keep reigning supreme.

EUR/USD
Dollar strength has kept the euro pinned down since October, as there has been little reason for optimism of an increase in value in the single market currency. Lacklustre data from the Eurozone has meant the stance from the European Central Bank is not expected to change until the second half of 2019 at the earliest. An apparent range of 1.15 to 1.13 has been in play since October. German GDP followed by eurozone GDP could provide volatility on Thursday morning. Will this range continue? A breach below recent support of 1.13 could signal further downside to come; however, holding above this may give hope of another bounce. US PPI and Retail Sales data follows in the afternoon.

EUR/CAD
Since the turn of the year, the Canadian dollar has been going from strength to strength against the euro. Two of the most important bits of economic data hit as the European markets open on Friday. Gross Domestic Product comes first from Germany followed by CPI inflationary figures from the eurozone. Traders will be monitoring these numbers to try and gauge whether the eurozone is strong enough for the ECB to contemplate making amendments to its monetary policy in 2019. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better-than-expected number could have a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend could be seen as negative (or bearish). Canadian Retail Sales will also be worth monitoring at 13:30.

Brent Crude
Crude oil has risen some 20% in 2019 on hopes that a decline in supply from OPEC and Russia will offset recent oversupply fears. The previous 3-month resistance level of $63 was surpassed last week and bullish speculators hope the rally will continue after breaking above this key level. Traders will be looking for announcements of deals being done between the world’s largest economies - currently locked in tariff negotiations.

Events

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