ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are GMT)
Monday, 14th January 00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations 02:00 CNY Imports/Exports 02:00 CNY Trade Balance 02:00 CNY FDI – Foreign Direct Investment 10:00 EUR Industrial Production 21:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence
Tuesday, 15th January N/A GBP UK Parliamentary Vote On Brexit 01:30 CNY Producer Price Index 02:00 CNY Retail Sales 02:00 CNY Industrial Production 10:00 EUR Trade Balance 13:30 USD Producer Price Index
Wednesday, 16th January 07:00 GER Consumer Price Index 09:30 GBP Retail Price Index 09:30 GBP Producer Price Index 09:30 GBP PPI Core Output 09:30 GBP Consumer Price Index 13:30 USD Retail Sales 15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 19:00 USD Fed’s Beige Book
Thursday, 17th January 00:30 AUD HIA New Home Sales 02:00 CNY Gross Domestic Product 07:00 GER Wholesale Price Index 10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index 13:30 USD Building Permits 13:30 CAD ADP Employment Change 21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index
Friday, 18th January 04:30 JPY Industrial Production 08:30 GBP Retail Sales 13:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey 13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index 14:15 USD Industrial Production 18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count CORPORATE CALENDAR
Monday, 14th January JD Sports Fashion PLC – Trading Statement
Tuesday, 15th January Ashmore Group PLC – Trading Statement Genel Energy PLC – Trading Statement Hays PLC – Trading statement Provident Financial PLC – Trading Statement Persimmon Group PLC – Trading Statement
Wednesday, 16th January Dunelm Group PLC – Trading Statement Tullow Oil PLC – Trading Statement
Thursday, 17th January Associated British Foods PLC – Trading Statement Rio Tinto PLC – Trading Statement SSP Group PLC – Trading Statement Whitbread PLC – Trading Statement
Second Time Lucky? Brexit: Deal or No Deal...
Global equity markets staged a comeback last week after Chinese and US teams ended trade talks in Beijing, with officials saying further details will be released soon. This raised hopes that an all-out trade war that could badly disrupt the global economy can be avoided. Indices rebounded to hit near four-week highs, taking the lead from Wall Street. Global growth fears, which decimated markets in the final quarter of 2018, will still be at the forefront of traders’ minds and important Chinese Gross Domestic Product figures in the early hours of Thursday morning could determine short-term sentiment for global indices such as Wall Street, the UK 100 and the Germany 30.
GBP/USD could be in for a volatile time next week as the UK Prime Minister Theresa May will attempt to get her Brexit deal pushed through Parliament on Tuesday. The issue is likely to dominate sterling trade in the run-up. May will lose the vote unless she can convince opponents both within and outside her Conservative Party to back the deal. Should the deal somehow get the approval of Parliament, GBP could strengthen as it benefits from the increase in clarity surrounding the UK leaving the European Union.
EUR/CAD could see movement towards the end of the week when Consumer Price Index inflation data from Europe is released at 10:00, Thursday morning. This will be followed by Canadian ADP Employment data at 13:30 and CPI data from Canada on Friday. With the European Central Bank having called time on their lucrative asset purchase program at the end of 2018, focus now moves to the ECB making inflation their main target, to which CPI figures are one of the main gauges for amending future monetary policy and thus the reading, positive or negative, could see subsequent volatility in the EUR.
Also benefited from the extension of US-China talks which raised hopes of easing trade tensions between the two superpowers, but gains were capped by signs of rising US refined product supply. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change will be important to watch on Wednesday (15:30) to see if there has been a build or drawdown in oil inventories.
Although macro-economic data remains key drivers for markets, it’s worth remembering that any developments or progress surrounding the US-China trade war, as well as Brexit negotiations between the UK Government and the European Union, will be important to monitor for further over-exaggerated moves in global indices and relevant currency pairings.
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